Choose Your Order

You and your friend are playing Mario Kart. Each turn, either you or your friend gets to select the map. If you select the map, you have probability p1p_1 of winning the turn. If your friend selects the map, you have probability p2p_2 of winning the turn. Consider the following two possible conventions for map selection: Method A:\textbf{Method A:} Alternating every turn Method B:\textbf{Method B:} The player selecting continues to select until they lose You get to select the map of the first turn. Each time someone wins, they receive a point. The first person to reach nn points wins the tournament. Assuming you know both p1p_1 and p2p_2 , under an optimal strategy, which convention would you choose when n=10n = 10 to maximize your probability of winning?

A

Choose Method A if p1 > p2 and Method B otherwise.

B

You are indifferent. Both conventions give the same win probability under optimal play.

C

Choose Method A because alternation reduces variance.

D

Choose Method B because keeping selection after wins compounds your advantage.