Bold Play to Five Tokens
You hold 3 tokens and want to reach 5 before hitting 0. Every bet pays even money: you stake tokens, you win more with probability 1/4, and you lose the stake with probability 3/4. Bets are independent.
You play bold: on each bet you stake as much as you can without overshooting the target, that is tokens when you hold .
What is the probability that you reach 5 before going broke? Answer format: round to 3 decimal places.
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