Free Throws, Given a Make
Tom makes his first free throw and misses his second. From attempt 3 on, the chance he makes attempt equals the fraction of his first attempts that were makes.
As grows this fraction converges to a random limit , and that limit is Uniform(0,1). Conditional on , far-apart attempts behave like independent coin flips with heads probability .
In the limit, what is the probability that Tom makes attempt given that he made attempt ?
Answer format: round to 3 decimal places.
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