The Prior Overrules the Peak

A one-dimensional Gaussian generative classifier with a shared variance:

class kk prior πk\pi_k mean μk\mu_k variance
0 0.9 0 1
1 0.1 2 1

Classify x=2x = 2 with y^=arg⁡max⁡k  πk N(x; μk, 1)\hat y = \arg\max_k ; \pi_k , N(x;, \mu_k,, 1).

A

Undecidable. Without the normalizing constant 1/2πσ21/\sqrt{2\pi\sigma^2} these are not probabilities and cannot be compared.

B

Class 0. The prior's 9-to-1 edge beats the likelihood's e2≈7.4e^{2} \approx 7.4: once the shared constant cancels, 0.9×0.135=0.1220.9 \times 0.135 = 0.122 against 0.1×1=0.1000.1 \times 1 = 0.100.

C

Class 1. x=2x = 2 sits exactly on μ1\mu_1 and two standard deviations from μ0\mu_0, so it belongs to the nearer class.

D

Class 1. The likelihood ratio is 7.4 to 1, and the priors only break ties when the two densities are equal.